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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still