A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
